Gold soared to a new record on Thursday as investors sought refuge amid escalating global trade tensions after US President Donald Trump’s announcement of new auto tariffs.Spot gold rose 1.2% to $3,055.87 per ounce by 11:30 a.m. ET, after scaling a new peak of $3,059.48 earlier. US gold futures traded 1.5% higher at $3,068.80 per ounce, having also hit an all-time high.“Looks like we’re going to see (gold futures hit) $3,100 here shortly, and the main catalyst is safe-haven buying,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, referring to market uncertainty driven by Trump’s tariff plans.Governments from Ottawa to Paris have threatened retaliation after Trump unveiled a 25% tariff on imported vehicles, set to come into effect the day after he plans to announce reciprocal tariffs, aimed at the countries he says are responsible for the US trade deficit.Global stock markets fell as shares in some of the world’s biggest carmakers tumbled.Following the Federal Reserve’s decision last week to hold its benchmark interest rate steady, while indicating potential rate cuts later this year, investors are now awaiting the US Personal Consumption Expenditures data due on Friday to gauge the trajectory for further rate cuts.“If (the PCE data) comes out better-than-expected, it might signal more upside for gold… because the Fed would be in a better position to start cutting rates,” Haberkorn added.Goldman forecastCoinciding with gold’s new record, analysts at Goldman Sachs once again bumped up their price forecast for the yellow metal, now anticipating $3,300 an ounce by the end of this year.The new projection, says Goldman analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven, reflects a pick-up in gold purchases by central banks, which have bought over 1,000 tonnes for three straight years and are on track to repeat the same feat in 2025.Credit: Goldman SachsCiting strong central bank buying, the Goldman team already raised its year-end price target once this year, lifting it from $2,890 to $3,100 per ounce in late February.“Central banks — particularly in emerging markets — have increased gold purchases roughly fivefold since 2022, following the freezing of Russian reserves,” Thomas and Struyven wrote in a note. “We view this as a structural shift in reserve management behavior, and we do not expect a near-term reversal.”They also noted that flows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) “surprised to the upside,” with renewed investor demand for hedges likely driving the expansion, while reiterating their view for two rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve this year.“While ETF flows generally track Fed policy rates, history shows they can overshoot during extended periods of macro uncertainty — such as during the Covid-19 pandemic,” the bank’s analysts said.Should accelerating demand for hedging boosts ETF holdings toward the pandemic-level heights seen in 2020, prices may hit $3,680 an ounce by year’s end, they added.(With files from Bloomberg and Reuters)
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