Gold could exceed $4,800 per oz. by December 2030 based on a probable base-case scenario, Liechtenstein-based gold fund Incrementum outlined in its In Gold We Trust report.The report’s base-case scenario projects an outcome with a target of $2,942 per oz. by year-end and $4,821 per oz. by the decade’s end, according to fund manager Ronald-Peter Stöferle. Gold is just starting a long bull market that could last for decades, said Stöferle, who is also one of the primary authors of the report released on Thursday. It’s fuelled by monetary excess, geopolitical fragmentation and technical market factors.“We pointed out the possibility of an inflationary or stagflationary decade, as in the 1970s,” Stöferle wrote. “In our opinion, we have witnessed a paradigm shift in recent quarters, ushering in a new phase of the bull market.”Incrementum has updated its gold price models every year since it first began publishing them in 2020. It maps price paths from January 1970 through December 2030 under three money-supply growth (M2) scenarios, high, medium and low. Its base-case scenario projects M2 growth of 6.3% per year – on par with the 2000s – and carries an 80% probability. As of April 30, gold already traded above the interim floor of $2,942 per oz. the fund projects for 2025, underlining early momentum in a projected decade-long bull thesis, according to Stöferle.The analyst tempered the outlook, however, noting gold’s next leg may test patience again. The bullish thesis rests on deeper trends in money, power and market dynamics, Stöferle said.“A secular bull market is never without setbacks,” he said. “Corrections of 20, 30, and even up to 40% have been observed several times in previous bull markets.”The inflationary, or “tail-risk” scenario of a rare but extreme event would lift gold to $8,926 per oz. at decade’s end, and $4,080 per oz. by December this year. That model assumes a 9.7% annual M2 increase – akin to the 1970s, Stöferle points out – with a 15% probability.The low-growth scenario envisions M2 increasing at 3.9% annually – reflecting the 1990s – and has a 5% probability. While the report doesn’t assign explicit year-end price targets to this path, it implies minimal upside beyond current levels.‘Early innings’The precious metal has doubled in US-dollars terms since January 2020 and gained 27.2% in 2024 alone. On Friday it traded at $3,191.30 per oz. in New York. Investors have endured pullbacks of up to 40% on the way up, the 450-page report notes, yet each correction has only steeled the uptrend.“The [report theme] ‘Big Long’ is our renewed call to question the generally low gold allocation among investors and to weight safe-haven gold and performance gold to a considerable extent,” Stöferle said this week.The price broke to 43 new all-time highs in 2024 and added 22 more by April 30 this year. Central banks snapped up over 1,000 tonnes of bullion for the third straight year, lifting official reserves to fresh records. Exchange-traded fund inflows topped 1,200 tonnes last year, underlining strong retail and institutional demand.In the record gold price environment, momentum traders chased breakouts above $2,200 in early April, driving GLD ETF inflow volumes past 1 million oz. on several days last quarter.Miners ranging from Newmont (NYSE: NEM, TSX: NGT) to smaller peers tracked gold’s rise, lifting share prices even as physical volumes lagged, the report found.Project pipelineOfficial net purchases outpaced mine output by roughly 300 tonnes in 2024, while recycling hovered near all-time highs at 1,370 tonnes. That gap underlines why mine expansions from Canada to Colombia matter now more than ever, Stöferle said.The report cites two development projects to watch. Seabridge Gold’s (TSX: SEA) KSM project in British Columbia holds the largest gold resource in the world. It hosts 5.4 million measured and indicated tonnes grading 0.51 gram gold per tonne for 88.7 million oz. gold, and another 6.7 million tonnes inferred at 0.33 gram gold for 71.5 million ounces. Its upcoming 2026 feasibility study will confirm how KSM’s 47 million-oz. gold in reserves can be most profitably brought to market.AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE: AU) owns the 23 million-oz. La Colosa project in Colombia and plans a preliminary economic assessment by year-end.Exploration flurryGlobal exploration budget sizes spiked 18% last year, the report noted, as developers raced to replenish reserves. Data compiled by Woodmac pegged total gold exploration spending at about $5.6 billion last year. Spending by companies in Canada accounted for nearly a quarter of global gold exploration budgets.In Nevada’s Carlin Trend, Orla Mining (TSX: OLA) invested $15 million last year at its South Carlin Complex. Drilling returned standout intercepts such as 34.7 metres at 2.68 grams gold at Dark Star and 55.2 metres at 1.04 grams gold over 55.2 metres at Pinion. The current $15 million program for 18,000 metres is to extend those oxide and sulphide zones.In West Africa, Fortuna Mining (TSX: FVI) poured its first gold at the Séguéla mine in Ivory Coast in August 2024. Last September, it completed its acquisition of Chesser Resources, gaining the Diamba Sud project in Senegal. This expands their portfolio to two-thirds in West Africa.
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